BOA Merill Lynch had such a bullish report a few days ago and target price of $2.12.

ASL MARINE target raised, YANGZIJIANG has 70% upside?

Nomura is at the other extreme as the report here shows. It's only because Nomura 'fully discounts" YZJ's held to maturity investments. Rather strange in my view. So Nomura's TP is only 74 cents. Aiyah, this sort of price level will not be re-visited again.

For what it is worth:


Action: Downgrade to Reduce, TP at SGD0.74 We like Yangzijiang (YZJ) for its proactive approach in securing new contracts. However, we remain negative on the overall commercial
shipping industry outlook and YZJ’s shrinking margins and orderbook. We think the share price has out-run itself and should correct to more accurately reflect the non-positive shipbuilding outlook. As such, we downgrade to Reduce with a price target of S$0.74

Catalyst: Newbuild pricing weak, demand to be lacklustre Recent new orders won by YZJ were done at an average price of US$28m. We estimate that a similar order would have fetched an average of US$35m previously. This is reflective of a poorer pricing environment.

Our shipping analysts expect the container segment to suffer further losses in 2012 and BDI levels to remain at loss-making levels. As such, we think that newbuild demand from vessel owners will be low. We believe that YZJ will continue to win orders but at the expense of margins. Due to falling new orders and shrinking margins, revenues and profits from the core shipbuilding segment are expected to shrink. However, earnings will continue to be held up by non-core investment income and other gains which are coming in higher than expected.

Valuations

We continue to value YZJ solely as a shipbuilding business on a SOTP basis, while fully discounting its HTM investments, which were worth S$0.55/sh as at end-2011. YZJ trades at FY12F/13F P/Es of 7.2 / 10.0x which are at the mid band of its historical range (P/E range of 3.7 / 13.3x).

Hope you didn't missed it. YZJ has sailed up to nearly double yr price at $1.40 currently.

I was just checking back on what has been said & reported in the past. Came across this article Oct 2011:

YZJ turned out to have done well in its share-buyback --  purchased 1,000,000 shares at $0.89. And as the share price continued to plummet, bought back another 2,000,000 shares at $0.84.

The stock now at $1.36, up nearly 60% in 5 months.

Who were the sellers at those prices? Panic - sellers when the world was all gloom & doom. U gotta pray for another crisis to buy at such levels.

sunnyday, what is your target price?
This morning, YZJ delivered a good set of results -- and 5.5 cents in dividend, up from 4.5 cents last year. It doesn't sound like a S-chip at all... LOL

Today, Credit Suisse had a report making some forecasts about the upcoming FY2011 results. This is the line that caught my eye :

"Yangzijang is one of the cheapest stocks in Singapore market on P/B relative to ROE. The stock is currently trading at 2012E P/E of 7.2x, below its historical average of 12x. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating."

Ok, let's see what happens when YZJ delivers report next week.

ya, read the news already. the stock price is going up now. it won 206.2million so far this year. the group is now securing orders for 2013 and beyond!!!doing quite well.

CITIGROUP report: YZJ has consistently surprised with a stronger than expected set of results. However, the contrasts in margins between pre-2008 and current new build ships suggest 2012 earnings will continue to be very strong while outlook beyond 2H13 remains uncertain.

This has depressed the stock valuation multiple. In view of the strong 9M FY11 profit, we raise our 2011 estimates by 17% but leave 12-13E estimates relatively unchanged. Our new target price is S$1.20 as we reduce the shipbuilding valuations in our SOTP valuations.

Yangzijiang’s quarterly earnings crosses billion mark and at record high of RMB1.02 billion for 3Q2011

* Earnings grew 40% in 3Q2011 with more of higher margin vessels delivered and 156% growth in other gains

* Revenue up 12% to RMB3.46 billion in 3Q2011 as the Group delivered total of 19 vessels against 14 vessels in 3Q2010

* The order book stood at 114 vessels worth US$5.3 billion as at 30 September 2011

Stock is in tight trading range 90 cts -$1. Closing price on Friday was 95.5 cents. Weak shipping rates have dampened sentiment for shipbuilders like YZJ.

97 cents now! Goes to show that the market can be over-fearing about something that is insignificant. Business Times article recently has just jumped on the bandwagon.

Singapore-listed Yangzijiang Shipbuilding  <YAZG.SI> in focus after the company addressed investor concerns about its exposure to informal lending and corporate failures in China.

 Yangzijiang said to date, it had invested around 247.5 million yuan ($38.8 million) in two  micro-financing entities,  which accounted for less than 3 percent of the group's net tangible assets as at June 30. The company has not experienced any default of its investments in financial assets since 2008, it added.

+4.5 cents now to 93.5 cents. This big fish got away from me.... sigh

'Average down YANGZIJIANG', 'buy BIOSENSORS, LIAN BENG'

The AmFraser analyst who urged investors to average down on YZJ just 1 week ago deserves a pat on his back. Now, YZJ is 91 cents.

The share buyback program by the company definitely build confidence for investors. Therefore, a 10% increase is not a surprise.

However, SIA or Ho Bee who have been doing share buybacks, it only brought temporary relief to the share prices. Right now, both companies's overall share buybacks are higher than the current prices. Though, do note that SIA did some share buybacks at below 11 dollars.

up up and away....87.5 cents now! Why? Have investors suddenly felt convinced of the Held-to-Maturity investments of YZJ? I doubt it. Instead it is all about sentiment and the herd mentality. Suddenly, everybody is riding the horse of YZJ to profits. And the shortists have abandoned shorting YZJ

4 days and, on hindsight, anyone could have made 10% on Yangzijiang by buying at 77 and selling at 85.5 cents now!

On hindsight.... sigh.... that's always pefect vision

On hindsight, 77 cents was a good entry point. Closed at 80 cents yesterday SSsssssh. Today should be firmer, 85 cents?, cos of good Dow closing overnight.

77 cents .,..another 7 cents to go.
Can buy at 70 ?

Worth a punt?

I am surprised that YZJ still hasn't done any corporate share buyback. Didn't they 'threaten' to do so if the stock went too low? Anyway, this stock has made a comeback at $1.205 now, after the fund panic selling was done. 

Hi Garl,

Which is better, share buyback or chairman/management buying (as insiders) on personal level? 

Hard to say, good points about insider buying:

1. Chairman/directors willing to stake their own money suggests solid confidence and that they are 'walking the talk' - they believe in their enterprise.

2. Company does not have to use its own cash reserves to buy the shares since the chairman/insiders are using their own money. Therefore the company retains its cash reserves which some may argue would be better used ffor business expansion purposes. 

3. When chairman/insiders buy it's usually for long term/on a permanent basis, they don't trade regularly and aren't allowed to any way. When they buy, the effect is therefore similar to a buyback in that they reduce the supply of shares trading in the open market and in a bearish market like now, thereby reduce the number of potential sellers. 

Good points about share buyback:

1. Company may have to use its own cash but by reducing the number of shares, the dividends per share would likely increase since the dividends will now be split among a smaller number of shares - so share buyback may result in an increase in the dividend ratio. Earnings per share also go up, however book value goes down since the company's own cash is used for the share buyback. At the same time, the market cap also goes down (without the share price dropping) since the total number of shares are reduced, therefore the price to book ratio is not affected since both price and book value go down proportionately

Which do you prefer? Which is better?

ethan999, i agree that it is significant. What shareholders would like to see is the cash hoard being applied to a sustained, daily share buyback. YZJ has been slow to carry out this.

Actually this is nothing compared to Yangzijiang's chairman Ren Yuanlin, who has bought about 2.2 million shares in Yangzijiang over the last few weeks. Yangzijiang Director Yu Kebing has also bought 300 thousand shares. 

In addition to low valuations, Yangzijiang has 7.2 billion rmb in cash, while the management keeps buying. 

For many well-run companies, P/E levels are now not much higher than March 2009 lows, because earnings have doubled or more since then. 

DONG Ye Zong, the managing director of Cosco (Zhoushan) Shipyard Group Co Ltd, a unit of Cosco Corporation (Singapore), bought 60,000 shares in the Singapore-listed firm last Friday. He bought the Cosco Corporation (S) shares at 99.5 cents apiece - a low that the stock had not seen since April 2009.

Looks cheap on valuation basis even though the world is trembling. LOL.

Recently closed at 97 cents --- Yangzijiang would b trading at 2011E P/E of 5.5x and P/B of 1.7x .

Credit Suisse is expecting a corporate share buyback soon.

Better than expected profit numbers from Yangzijiang. Credit Suisse this morning said: "We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price of S$2.00. On 2011E P/E of 6.5x, Yangzijiang is trading at a 30% discount to regional peers."

Dear Mr Yangzijiang, tmrw after u let go yr 2Q results, u r not restrained any more from any buyback action. U should do the necessary to signal to the market that your stock is worth much more.

First, yr 2Q results should be good. Next, u should fire with the missiles at yr disposal. How about buying 1 m shares of yourself?

This news is after you said yzj is going to $2. Where is the $2?

Insightful commentary by Asiasons Research today:


While we were expecting profit taking to kick-in after the "yes" vote on the US budget ceiling, we did not foresee the drop to be so severe.  A series of worse-than-expected US economic releases plus the increasing premium over the sovereign debts of Italy and Spain had triggered a sharp fall in global markets.
 
The benchmark FSSTI fell 194.48 points or 6.1% to close the week at 2,973.92, its first  sub-3,000 close since the Japan earthquake in March 2011.  The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index dropped 1,494.11 or 6.7% to close at 20,946.14 and the US Dow decreased 698.63 points or 5.8% to close at 11,444.61.  

After the US market had closed on Friday, S&P announced the downgrade of US rating from AAA to AA+.  This has injected further uncertainty into the market and caused another wave of sell down in Asian markets this morning.  We believe the sell down was caused by the uncertainty over the effects of the downgrade.  The actual effect of the downgrade is still uncertain at current point - whether the downgrade would trigger fund redemptions, banks to set aside more capital and reduce lending, or just a non event.  Investors are also looking towards the outcome of this Tuesday's US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on whether there will be another round of quantitative easing (QE3).

Hi Sir, Where is the $2.00 rebound?

Really? I didn't know that. We shall see :)

Unloading action ??? U got to be kidding. The stock is up 5 cents today !!!

Target price above S$2.00

Did anyone of you shorted YZJ today?

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.com/2011/07/yzj-unloading-action-detected.html