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CHINA GAOXIAN, BIOSENSORS: What analysts say now...
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Excerpts from latest analyst reports….


UOB Kay Hian says revaluation catalyst for China Gaoxian is upcoming Korean listing

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Cao Xiangbin, chairman & CEO, China Gaoxian. NextInsight file photo
There is currently a shortage of differential fibres in China due to technological and production limitations and the country imports up to 40% of its differential fibre demand from advanced economies. China GaoXian fills this gap by providing globally competitive, state-of-the-art differential yarn at impressive margins (weighted average gross margin is 31%).

• There will be no shortage of demand in the next 1-2 years as the industry plays catch up while China GaoXian maintains its competitive advantage over its competitors. Management reveals that its factories are turning away orders due to overwhelming demand.

2H10 financial results – Solid results expected to continue

• Full-year revenue is forecast at Rmb1,935m (+6.8% yoy) on the back of a strong current orderbook of Rmb335.7m and seasonally stronger sales in 2H10.

Net profit is expected at Rmb423m (+3.9% yoy). Gross margin is likely to hold steady at 31.2%.

Revaluation catalyst – Potential upcoming KDR listing

• Management reiterates its commitment to see through the plans for a dual listing on the Korean bourse. We expect valuations for its dual listing to be closer to the KRX industry PE of 31.4x, and hence, a corresponding upward revaluation for its local listing.

Gaoxian_UOBKH
Source: UOB Kay Hian, Oct 14


Valuation – Severely undervalued than peers

• China GaoXian is trading at 2009 PE of 2.9x, a hefty 72% discount to the SGX industry PE of 10.3x. As the largest manufacturer of polyester fibres listed on the SGX, we think it is unjustified for it to be priced at such a discount to peers’. If China GaoXian manages to continually deliver strong results and successfully execute its KDR listing and vertical integration plans, it will gain investor interest quickly.

• We value China GaoXian at S$0.29 using a discounted cash flow approach, pricing the stock at 2010F PE of 5.1x. BUY.

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DBS Vickers says Hony Capital’s entry could pave way in China

We dialed in to the conference call last evening* (13 Oct) hosted by Biosensors' Chairman Mr Lu Yoh-Chie with respect to the sale of his entire stake to Hony Capital.The salient points of the call are as follows:

Biosensors_stent
Biosensors' stent is flexible.
Mr Lu Yu-Chie has sold his total 18% stake and does not have any indirect stake in BIG (other than some options). He will, however, retain its capacity as Chairman.

Other 6 vendors in the sale not disclosed due to personal confidentiality reasons, but we believe it could be pre-IPO investors.

Transaction price was based on 45 days average price and discussions with Hony Capital going back months before.

Rationale for sale - Mr Lu believed Hony Capital, as new partner, could bring company to next level.

Strategy of company remains unchanged.

Discussions of board seats and management contracts for Hony Capital in progress and yet to be finalised.

Our views:

Our assessment of the situation is still ongoing. However, our preliminary thoughts are that entry of Hony Capital could spell positive prospect for Biosensor going forward, especially in China. Hony Capital is a vote of confidence, with ultimate links to Legend/Chinese Academy of Sciences Holdings. Hony Capital could add value to BIG's operations especially in China. Hony Capital's shareholder is Legend Holdings, which in turn is 35% held by Chinese Academy of Sciences Holdings (an SOE). In that respect, the chances of its BioMatrix obtaining approvals in the Chinese market would be enhanced going forward. We think the element of "guanxi" could also take the relationship with Shandong Weigao forward.

Chairman's total exit may raise concerns, especially at seemingly discounted price. We believe Mr Lu's total exit would undeniably raise investors' concerns. However, in our view at this point, Mr Lu would have netted a princely sum even with the "discount". The “discount” could be skewed as share price has surged since Sep. Since our initiation note on 17 Sep, share price is up by c.25% (as of last evening’s closing).

Mr Lu stepped down as CEO since Jan’08. Mr Lu is the founder and ex-CEO of the Group. But he has stepped down as CEO since Jan 2008 (coincided with BioMatrix receiving CE Mark). Current CEO, Mr Jeffrey Jump, succeeded Mr Mike Klein in May 2010. Mr Jump joined Biosensors in 2003 and was SVP Sales & Marketing. As such, we believed Mr Lu’s share sale should not have any impact on management matters.

Management team to remain
. We believe the management team should remain intact. In our view, Hony Capital, as a private equity fund, would likely retain the company's key personnel to maximise its investment returns. We understand that issues such as management agreements and board seats are still under negotiations.

What would cause us to change our views/ Risks. Notwithstanding our current views, we would be looking out for changes in management, which could create uncertainty and scuttle the Group’s plans.