Isaac_castle7.13Isaac Chin in Denmark on his recent trip to Europe.


IN LESS THAN a month, we will be celebrating Singapore's 48th National Day. I was a Secondary 3 student when Singapore gained independence in 1965.  

Most Singaporeans of my generation are already retired,  with grown-up children and grandchildren.
I have just returned from a long trip to Norway,Sweden, Finland and Denmark. This was my 7th free-and-easy trip to Europe in the last 10 years, and was one of the most enjoyable journeys.

Isaac_lake7.13Isaac on his 7th trip to Europe recently. My wife and I travelled around by train and coach, and we also went on a cruise.

However during this trip, the world financial market abruptly corrected with the STI down > 10%.

Policy statements by the FED on QE tapering has caused the panic in the stock market, and the impact was greatest especially in Spore and HK where enormous foreign funds were parked.

The uncertainty in China's economy,geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and the recovery in U.S.economy have caused the sudden and sharp rise of the  U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield to 2.5%.

Gold prices have collapsed to below US$1,300 and funds have flowed back to the U.S., a phenomenon reminiscent of the 'carry-trade' in the last Asian Financial Crisis.

On a personal level, I still attained a return of 25% between 4 June 2012 to 1 July 2013  (as against STI gain of 16%) despite the sharp market pull back from the 22 May 2013 high.

Isaac_gain.7.13I owe this relatively sound performance to correct stock picks.

I have concentrated on SPH, SingPost, Star Hub, A Reit, Suntec Reit, Mapletree and have varied the composition of these stocks according to changing circumstances and exercising debt leverage only in a real crisis.

SPH and StarHub were bought after 4 June 2012, hence I do not record their prices as at 4/6/12 in the table (on the right).

As for Mapletree Logistics, I sold it x 387 lots x $1.285 compared to my purchase price of $1.06, and then bought into Mapletree Greater China Commercial at $1.04 a share.


My current shares and short-term corporate bonds still yield > 6% per annum, which is 350 basis points > SGS 10-year bond yield.

The market is consolidating at this moment, but STI could hit 3400 again by year-end.

On Singapore properties, I think an asset bubble has formed. I was told a Chinatown shop has changed hands  6X in the last 6 years with the last sale price being $12 million (from $2 million at its first transaction). 

Leasehold condos in Jurong were launched at >$1500 psf.

Most property investors, particularly first-timers, have not seen a property market in a previous down cycle when interest rate was high, the over-supply was large and job retrenchments were rampant.
 
I wish all Singaporeans more good years ahead.


Previous article: ISAAC CHIN: My pleasant trip to economically-depressed Spain
 

Comments  

0 #17 island 2015-10-02 11:10
Thanks for your insight on your investment. A good read. Care to comment on US fed interest rate increase and China slow down economy, plus the effect of oil prices going down south all the way down to end 2016.
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0 #16 N1 2013-12-09 08:21
Shui On is China coy listed on the HK exch? It seems to be having credit crunch, with banks refusing loans.. Hence the high coupon rate for its bonds
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0 #15 Ed 2013-08-02 10:43
Thanks Isaac for your reply. Its so good of you to share so willing your experiences with us. Cheers!
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0 #14 isaac 2013-07-31 04:36
I have a long term UOB loan which charged about 1% pa. with my 2 freehold properties as collateral. I limit my borrowing to 40% of the Property Valuation. As for Share Financing, the interest is 5% pa.But I will resort to this line of credit only in financial crisis. Note that average Div/Interest Yield from my shares and corporate bonds is 6%.
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0 #13 Ed 2013-07-25 12:58
Hi Isaac, Thanks for your sharing. It is an inspiration to me. May I ask which bank did you get your open credit line from and at what interest? I have asked a few banks and they do not provide that service. Thanks in advance for your help!
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0 #12 isaac 2013-07-22 01:05
Your guess is quite close. But the point I wish
to share is that besides financial independence,
life is not complete without good health and happiness.
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0 #11 Pretty Woman 2013-07-20 11:07
Isaac, assuming 5% return p.a., your stated 300K passive income implies a capital of S$6 M. If it's 3% p.a., then capital is S$10 M. Correct, right?
Which is it?
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0 #10 isaac 2013-07-20 04:59
I bought all my bonds through my broker from
DBS Vickers.

I have purchased mainly dividend stocks in
the last 13 years as a professional investor.
I received passive income about 300 K pa from rent,div,int, not bad for my age.
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0 #9 Andy 2013-07-19 13:37
Hi Issac, notice that u do not have commo stock. Do u think Noble or Wilmar will do well this yr end?Tks
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0 #8 2230 2013-07-19 04:47
Appreciate your valuable information and hope to learn from you.

I am currently 10% equity, 90% cash n 0 bonds and would like to have some bonds.

May I know how to get access to shui on bonds prices and how/where to deal?
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Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings0.9000.030
Alliance Mineral0.1890.002
Anchor Resources0.0100.001
AusGroup0.027-
Avi-Tech Electronics0.275-
Best World Int.1.360-
China Sunsine1.1700.010
CSE Global0.480-0.005
Food Empire0.520-
Geo Energy0.148-
Golden Energy0.1990.001
GSS Energy0.071-
HMI0.5600.005
ISDN Holdings0.2300.005
KSH Holdings0.465-
Miyoshi0.046-
Moya Asia0.0780.001
Nordic Group0.270-
Oxley Holdings0.3050.005
REX International0.0630.001
Riverstone0.9300.015
Roxy-Pacific0.400-
Sing Holdings0.380-
SingMedical0.400-0.010
Sino Grandness0.0590.002
Straco Corp.0.760-
Sunningdale Tech1.3100.020
Sunpower Group0.4500.015
The Trendlines0.079-
Tiong Seng0.220-
Uni-Asia Group1.120-
XMH Holdings0.163-
Yangzijiang Shipbldg1.370-0.010

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